Water GenbuTier 1
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
30
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
282
139-110-33
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1374
· median 1401
· range 1104–1688
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
13% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 49 | 24-19-6 | 55.1% | 54.7% | 54.0% | +1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 28 | 19-5-4 | 75.0% | 71.9% | 65.4% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 32 | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 40.3% | 39.3% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 10 | 10-0-0 | 100.0% | 85.7% | 82.3% | +14.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 27.7% | -10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 19 | 15-2-2 | 84.2% | 78.3% | 72.7% | +8.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 34.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 11 | 4-4-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.8% | -4.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 56.4% | +3.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 10 | 4-4-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 45.5% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -10.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.8% | +20.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 46.2% | -1.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 29.5% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.7% | -29.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 68.6% | +9.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Pelagic Fatestone, Resolute Stand, Expel the Departed. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Tidal Lock, Primordial Ritual.
Pelagic Fatestone
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Expel the Departed
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Resonating Fugue
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Strategem of Myriad Ice
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Tidal Lock
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Primordial Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Refracting Missile
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Piper's Lullaby | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Swooping Talons | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |